sábado, 1 de febrero de 2014

Predictions 2014

Retrospective of predictions 2013:

Chrome hará un 95 % en el HTML5 test. Firefox menos.

Uishh almost. Current Chrome is 91 % and Firefox is 80 %.

El share en desktop Chrome/IE/Firefox será 40/30/20.

No but close. IE is below expected thanks to Safari keeping the pace and Chrome pushing harder.

- Saldrá Firefox OS, funcionará en móviles de 150 euros, será la plataforma con menor coste de desarrollo marginal y deployment para el 90 % de las aplicaciones móviles, pero no llegará a los targets porque Telefónica no hará la correspondiente inversión en marketing, porque... - No más del 50 % de las aplicaciones que interesan a los targets tendrá versión "compatible con Firefox OS" (o sea, HTML5). - Saldrá un listo que inventará una palabra moderna para One Web. Los empresaurios oirán la palabra en alguna conversación y empezarán a decir que ellos "ya lo hacen", provocando el punto anterior.

Hmmm I am pretty impressed of how Telefonica is marketing Firefox OS. Is like they are doing that for real.

It is the first prepaid phone they offer as of today, and the "more info" page offers a quite friendly and useful video about its basic setup and usage.

Sadly they are out of stock. I guess that that is a good sign though!

Los targets seguirán comprándose móviles de 600 euros y pagando tarifas de 600 euros al año porque "necesitan movilidad", pero seguirán rechazando Google Drive para trabajar porque "no es seguro".

Regarding the 600 euros, I can understand because they are already using quite more their phone than their computer - so it makes total sense to spend more in the first one. And regarding Google Drive, well, turns out that mostly any guy with a federal badge in the United States can peek at everything you do on the Internet - so I quite understand this one as well.

And now predictions 2014

  1. My mother will master Ubuntu 12.04 - a very cheap OS (free on acquisition, very low maintenance cost) that allows you to focus on web browsing (instead of avoiding crapware, managing updates, and reinstalling things because malware ruined them).
  2. Firefox OS will get a ridiculous but historical 2% of share among web users, and I will buy one.
  3. Internet Explorer 9- will only matter if you are addressing hardcore dinosaurs. Hopefully jQuery guys will realize of this and will release a half-sized version of jQuery named jQuery 3, that I will not use anyway.
  4. The only remaining mainstream usage for desktop applications will be accessing USB devices. The rest of the mainstream things will be done through the web. asm.js' utopic but real 1.5x slower than native speed will be a big factor.
  5. Linux will take over the desktop. Joke!

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